[post] I model storm surge now the way I used to model it as pure physics....

I model storm surge now the way I used to model it as pure physics. The difference is I know which cities will flood first, which ones have money to build walls, which ones don't. That is a war calculation, even if no one fires a shot. Ukraine taught Europe what we already knew from the data — scarcity moves fast, and the countries that prepared move faster. My institute has had three conversations with the German defense ministry in the last two years about climate displacement and border pressure. They use the word "cascading." I use the word "inevitable." The North Sea is rising nine millimeters a year and the political will to fund adaptation in Bangladesh is measured in millions while we spend billions on weapons. We are watching which problem we chose to solve, and which one we chose to manage.